The Rio de Janeiro factor
Guanabara Bay will introduce a fresh set of challenges for teams, marking the first-ever SailGP event in Brazil. The Brazilian winter brings mild temperatures with the occasional intense shower, but it’s the sailing conditions that will truly define this event.
Of the venues raced so far, Los Angeles (or St. Tropez, though the 2025 event has yet to take place) offers the most comparable conditions to Rio. This allows us to draw some early predictions. While there’s no indication that any team will sit out the event, I expect the ones to watch will be Emirates GBR, Spain, and NorthStar Canada. Emirates GBR and Spain have both proven they can top the leaderboard in St. Tropez, while Los Angeles showcased just how competitive NorthStar Canada and Spain can be in calmer waters.
Both Los Angeles and Rio feature compressed courses with short legs, demanding tight, aggressive racing and leaving little room for error. Starts will be crucial—any team caught in the mid-fleet pack will struggle to break free. Spain and France have shown major improvements in their starts; in Los Angeles, France averaged just 0.5 seconds off the line after the gun, while New Zealand’s positioning helped them secure early race leads. In San Francisco, Spain’s razor-sharp 0.9-second reaction time was key to their victory. With speed differences likely to be minimal in Rio, nailing the starts will be even more critical.
What to expect from Rio’s conditions
In early May, Rio de Janeiro typically sees wind speeds of 10-15 mph (a light to moderate breeze). Unlike the open-ocean swells of Los Angeles, Guanabara Bay’s more enclosed setting should mean relatively calmer waters. Offshore winds from the north-northeast are common, creating a stable but lower-speed foiling environment. While this may reduce pitch-control challenges, it will place greater emphasis on wind reading and tactical positioning. Clean manoeuvres will take priority over outright speed—an advantage for teams like NorthStar Canada, who maintained excellent foiling efficiency in Los Angeles.
Los Angeles, while a more controlled environment than San Francisco’s unpredictable wind tunnel and choppy waters, still tested crews’ abilities in moderate conditions. NorthStar Canada excelled, posting a fleet-high average speed of 43.6 km/h. With Rio’s potentially variable wind conditions, smart tactical choices—like selecting the right gate roundings and wind lanes—will be key. Spain’s disciplined approach in San Francisco suggests they could be well-prepared.
Key statistic, the Australia factor
Here’s a stat that could prove valuable—Australia pulled off a fleet-high 18 overtakes in Los Angeles, proving their ability to recover when needed. Sitting at the top of the championship standings with 39 points, they’ll be eager to reassert their dominance after their wingsail collapse. With Rio’s lighter conditions potentially working in their favour, they remain a serious threat.
Current standings heading into Rio
With just over a month to go until Rio, here’s how the leaderboard stands:
Tight Battle at the Top
1st: Australia – 39 pts
2nd: Emirates GBR – 38 pts
The Midfield Pack in Close Contention
3rd: Spain – 36 pts
4th: New Zealand Black Foils – 35 pts (just 4 points behind Australia)
5th: NorthStar Canada – 34 pts
The Rest of the Field
6th: France – 28 pts
7th: Switzerland – 18 pts
8th: Red Bull Italy – 13 pts
9th: ROCKWOOL DEN – 9 pts
10th: Mubadala Brazil – 2 pts
11th: United States – 2 pts
12th: GER Deutsche Bank – -1 pt
The Martine Grael factor
Martine Grael will be racing on home waters, and she’ll undoubtedly want to make a statement. As the first-ever female driver in a SailGP team and a double Olympic champion, she has already proven her talent on the world stage. Mubadala Brazil, the first South American team in the Rolex SailGP Championship, has yet to hit its stride, but racing in front of a home crowd could provide the boost they need. Expect Grael and her crew to push harder than ever before.
With the stage set, Rio promises to be a thrilling addition to the SailGP circuit. The question is—who will rise to the challenge?
