Boating conditions across New Zealand are abysmal. In fact, they’re hazardous.
The boating forecast across New Zealand until Tuesday (July 15) is dominated by strong northeasterlies, gale warnings, and Red Weather Warnings. A large weather system has swept the Tasman Sea, dragging fronts across the country. Rain, strong winds, poor visibility, and heavy swells are affecting almost every coastal zone and major harbour.
Coastal recreational conditions are rated “poor” nearly everywhere. Even in historically sheltered zones like the Hauraki Gulf or Tasman Bay, warnings are in force.
High seas? Worse still. Warnings for gales and heavy swell now cover all marine areas – Subtropic, Forties, Pacific, and Southern. Heavy swell belts are on the move, and fronts are stacking up.
In short: the sea is not your friend this weekend.
Regional snapshot: No safe harbour in sight
Northland and Bay of Islands
Gale-force northeasterlies up to 45 knots dominated today, with 2m swells. Tomorrow improves slightly but Sunday brings more rain. By Tuesday, conditions harden again with rising westerlies and leftover swell. Boating is not advised.
Auckland and Hauraki Gulf
Today’s forecast included 50-knot gusts and very rough seas. The weekend brings a slight easing, but low visibility and showers continue. Even Waitematā Harbour, normally a refuge, is unpredictable. Swells and wind oppose each other regularly, making short fetches messy.
Manukau Harbour and West Coast
Storm warnings offshore, gale warnings closer in. Swells climbing to 4 metres by Sunday. Poor visibility and heavy downpours reduce margins further.
Coromandel to Bay of Plenty
Gale warnings remain in effect. Wind gusts of 45 knots, rough seas, and 2–3 metre swells make launching dangerous. Possible thunderstorms through until this evening. Winds ease tomorrow, but persistent swell and squalls continue.
Eastern North Island – Hawke Bay and Gisborne
Strong wind warnings and rough seas. Tomorrow may ease, but conditions remain choppy and visibility remains limited into Sunday. Swells sit at around 1 metre but increase when wind opposes current.
Lakes Rotorua and Taupō
Orange and Heavy Rain Warnings apply. While wave heights remain manageable, rain and reduced visibility make these inland waters deceptive. Keep off the water until conditions improve.
Wellington and Kapiti
Strong wind advisories with gusts to 40 knots are in place. Castlepoint’s swell reaches 4 metres by tomorrow. Poor visibility, increasing rainfall, and thunderstorms make navigation risky.
Tasman and Nelson Region
The worst-hit area in the country. A Red Rain Warning is in place. Up to 120mm of rain, saturated soils, rising rivers. Slips and flooding expected. Winds approaching severe gale. Boating must not be attempted.
Christchurch and Canterbury Coast
Consistent northeast gales across the weekend, gusting 45 knots at times. Very rough seas develop overnight. Rain and reduced visibility persist. Not a safe time for coastal recreation.
Where not to boat (most of New Zealand)
- Top pick for where not to go: Tasman District. A Red Warning plus gale winds and saturated ground equals major danger.
- Second worst: West Coast from Raglan to Manukau. 4m swells building fast with opposing winds and reduced visibility.
- Also avoid: Castlepoint, Hauraki Gulf, Bay of Plenty coast – all under active warnings.
Any silver linings?
Only barely.
Some “medium” boating conditions may exist late Monday into early Tuesday in pockets:
- Bay of Islands: light variable winds, easing swell.
- Christchurch: slight ridge may settle winds.
- Rotorua and Taupō: clearer weather expected Monday.
- Wellington Harbour: potentially calmer by Tuesday, though Castlepoint remains rough.
That said, none of these areas are truly good. They are simply less bad.
What it all means
The boating forecast across New Zealand until Tuesday 15th July carries a simple message: don’t go. Every coastal forecast carries warnings. Conditions are unstable, unpredictable, and dangerous.
Even sheltered bays offer little refuge. If the wind doesn’t get you, the swell will. If not the sea, then the visibility.
The boating forecast across New Zealand until Tuesday suggests one clear course of action: don’t risk it.
