The live has now finished. You can track the race as it progresses via the race tracker.
Conditions are windy and uncomfortable. This is weather that tests both seamanship and stamina. The forecast swell is fully developed, and smaller boats are bashing hard into the seas. Progress is slow and physical.
Up front, the larger boats are leaning on experience. Navigators are working current and pressure lines, managing risk while keeping speed on. It is already a tight contest at the top.
The leading models suggest a roughly 24 hour race for the front runners. These conditions favour LawConnect and Master Lock Comanche more than Palm Beach XI, which is unlikely to enjoy this sea state.
Current top 10
LawConnect
Master Lock Comanche
LDV Comanche
Lucky (further offshore)
Palm Beach XI
Wild Thing 100
Celestial V70
SHK Scallywag 100
URM Group
Moneypenny
Lucky continues to push offshore and has not tacked, searching for cleaner sea state. Master Lock Comanche has given ground to LawConnect as the fleet settles. Crews are fully locked in, protecting the bows and managing impact loads.
The fleet is north of Botany Bay and beginning to fan out, with most boats likely to stay closer to the coast. Large, steep seas are making conditions difficult and uncomfortable across the course.
Callisto
The crew is pushing hard and, while positions are still fluid, Callisto appears to be the leading New Zealand boat. She is running around tenth overall, with Moneypenny ahead and Smuggler astern. Go Callisto!
At the top
LawConnect is on starboard, Master Lock Comanche on port, giving LawConnect starboard rights. Both boats share a similar, beamy profile compared with the other 100-footers. LawConnect is protecting the right-hand side as the fleet heads south, already shaping the down-the-coast weather and tactical play. Neither will give ground.
Lucky holds third.
Palm Beach XI runs fourth.
Wild Thing 100 is in fifth.
Early order as the fleet exists the Harbour
Sydney to Hobart: early order as the fleet exits the harbour
The back markers
The back of the fleet is finding it sluggish going. The Australian Army is first out of the Heads, ahead of Australian Navy.
Up ahead, LawConnect has tacked onto port, splitting from Master Lock Comanche.
Higher or lower?
LawConnect has gone for the higher position while MLC has gone for the lower position.
Vixen Racing has probems
Dropping a little bit as they face problems with their spinnaker.
LawConnect has the inside running
In recent years it has been LawConnect first out of the Heads, and once again she controls the early phase despite the underdog tag. She leads toward the first turning mark. In previous editions, furling issues have troubled LawConnect at this point. The team will be hoping for a clean turn this time. Ian Thorpe might be the change, being onboard this year.
The pace is rapid. LawConnect is around just under 6 minutes. Master Lock Comanche is pushing to get inside LawConnect in second. Lucky holds third. Palm Beach XI runs fourth.
We are just starting to see the second fleet making their way down to the turning mark.
And the race has started!
There are multiple start lines. Fourteen of the big boats started on the first start line. With smaller boats on second, third start lines. Most of the boats running with their head sail. Most of the boats started out on the west-hand side to take advantage of the wind.
LawConnect deploys first for the third year running, gaining an early jump. She sits to leeward of Master Lock Comanche. Lucky also starts well, positioned further west, giving her a cleaner angle and potential early advantage.
Palm Beach XI also in a good location to engage with LawConnect and MLC.
Less then five minutes to go
It will be spinnaker run-up the Harbour and then they’ll turn into the Tasman and will be bashed by the weather. Probably about five minutes until the first inner mark. The first night is expected to be tough.
New Zealand boats lining up in the Rolex Sydney to Hobart — four distinct campaigns with one clear mission.
New Zealand is well represented in the 80th Rolex Sydney to Hobart Yacht Race, with a mix of proven offshore performers and hard-earned underdog stories. From polished campaigns to late-built, resilience-driven entries, the Kiwi boats bring intent, experience, and ambition to a demanding race. Different designs, different paths to the start line, but one shared goal: race hard, race smart, and finish south.
Callisto | V5 | Rum Bucket | Vixen Racing | Gizmo.
Half an hour to the start
Where is the fleet now?
In a fleet of over 100 yachts.
Less than one hour until the 80th Sydney to Hobart is underway
The 80th Rolex Sydney to Hobart Yacht Race is minutes from its Boxing Day start, and conditions have firmed since earlier forecasts. A 129-strong fleet will face a tough opening phase, with 20–25 knot southerlies, upgraded 3–4 metre swell, and a cold, demanding first night once clear of Sydney Heads.
80th Rolex Sydney to Hobart Yacht Race begins under tougher opening forecast
One hour remains until the start of the 80th Rolex Sydney to Hobart Yacht Race, and the tone for this anniversary edition is already set. The forecast has hardened. The fleet is large. Preparation gaps are exposed. And the opening phase looks set to demand respect from the moment the fleet clears Sydney Heads.
At 1:00pm AEDT today, 129 yachts will leave Sydney Harbour bound for Hobart, racing 628 nautical miles south in one of offshore sailing’s most demanding events. The fleet represents every Australian state, along with New Zealand, China, Germany and the United States. Conditions inside the harbour will be manageable, but once clear of the Heads, the race will change quickly.
Southerly winds of 20 to 25 knots are expected offshore, stronger and more persistent than earlier forecasts. The most significant shift is in sea state. Southerly swell has been upgraded to three to four metres, particularly along the New South Wales south coast. Between Jervis Bay and Montague Island, strong southbound current running against the swell is expected to create confused, punishing seas. It will be an unforgiving first night.
This is not an unfamiliar Sydney to Hobart pattern, but it is a sharper one. Crews face cold, wet conditions early, with spray, showers and falling temperatures. Winds are forecast to hold through Friday and Saturday before easing. Even then, large residual seas will continue to load boats and crews.
At the front of the fleet, the headline names are all present, but certainty is not.
Palm Beach XI, formerly Wild Oats XI, returns to Hobart racing after last competing in 2022. The most successful line honours yacht in race history arrives with major upgrades including a new keel, bulb and daggerboards. Yet preparation has been compromised. The boat was relaunched on December 10. As of Christmas Day, the crew had sailed together only three times. Planned C foils have been shelved. Skipper Mark Richards has been frank. “We’re just not quite ready,” he said. In a race where early reliability matters, rivals remain cautious about her line honours prospects.
Master Lock Comanche resumes her long-running duel at the front of the fleet, chasing a cleaner run after recent near misses. LawConnect remains a serious threat for both line honours and the Tattersall Cup. Across the fleet, boats range from 30 foot double-handed entries to 100 foot maxis, all racing under IRC.
This year’s race also carries tightened safety requirements. Following the 2024 safety review, all crew must wear AIS man overboard devices in addition to personal locator beacons. At least half of each crew must have completed the yacht’s qualifying race. The start has been split into four staggered lines by size to reduce congestion in the harbour. The emphasis is clear. The opening 30 hours are expected to be the most testing.
New Zealand is strongly represented, with Callisto, V5, Rum Bucket, Gizmo and Vixen Racing all making their Sydney to Hobart debut despite experienced crews. Their designs and campaigns differ, but all arrive with intent.
Looking south, the race is likely to turn tactical in Bass Strait. By Sunday, yachts may encounter light or variable winds of five to ten knots beneath a high pressure system. Despite lighter air, long period southerly swell will persist, with a competing westerly swell possible near Tasmania. Forecast confidence drops beyond the weekend, with European and US models diverging on the timing of the next system.
In this year’s Rolex Sydney to Hobart, success will hinge on preparation, restraint and timing. Speed alone will not be enough. The weather will shape the race, as it always does.
