After yesterday’s dramatic incident between the Black Foils and France, all eyes are on the wind conditions. The good news is that sustained conditions sit within a solid racing range. The key difference is timing.
On Friday, organisers shifted to an 1100 start for Sunday’s—today’s—racing. That was a smart move, by mid afternoon, Auckland is forecast to turn far more aggressive, with gusts pushing towards 40 knots, around 74 km/h, across the harbour. That would have made a 1600 race window extremely punchy, but more to the point, potentially dangerous.
Mid-teens breeze, big gusts
During the race period from 1100 through to shortly after noon, we are looking at sustained winds in the mid teens. Around 15 knots, which converts to roughly 28 km/h. Expect average wind speeds between 25 and 30 km/h across the course.
The direction will be generally southwest, much like yesterday. Some models suggest a slight shift more southerly as the session progresses, which could alter laylines and favoured boundaries.
The real talking point will be the gusts. Forecast peaks sit at 31 knots, around 57 km/h. Gusts in the high 20s, about 52 to 55 km/h, look almost certain at times. That is enough to keep flight controllers and trimmers busy. It is not extreme by SailGP standards, but it will test reaction times and boat handling.
Later in the day is another story. Forecast gusts approaching 40 knots, near 74 km/h, underline why racing has been brought forward.
Sea state and tide in play
Wave height is forecast at 0.5 metres. That is slightly smaller than yesterday, but the short four second period will keep the harbour choppy. With wind and wave both from the southwest, crews should expect tight, sharp impacts rather than long rolling swells.
Tidal flow flips compared to day one. Yesterday, teams raced near the top of the tide with water pushing in. Today, the tide will be flowing out. Low tide is due at 1246, just after racing concludes.
That outgoing flow could flatten sections of the course, but it may also create awkward cross currents near marks, especially if the breeze edges more southerly. In a fleet as tight as SailGP, this will be something crews need to be aware of.
Cloud cover, cooler air
Cloud cover drops to around 50 percent, less than yesterday. By midday, there is a chance of significant blue sky. UV levels will rise towards lunchtime, so teams and shore crews will need the sunscreen despite the cooler air.
Temperatures sit around 18 to 19 degrees. That is a touch cooler than day one, but once boats are foiling at 80 kmh plus, apparent wind will make it feel brisk.
A little rain remains possible, but nothing significant. It will not be pleasant out there, yet it is very much raceable.
The bottom line
Today’s conditions look manageable. Sustained winds around 28 km/h with gusts up to 50 km/h will keep the F50s honest. The earlier start avoids the worst of the afternoon blow.
After the tension of day one, there will be nerves. However, nothing in this forecast suggests racing should not continue. It will be physical. It will be fast. And with an outgoing tide and sharp southwest chop, it will reward precision over brute force.
For the Black Foils and the rest of the fleet, day two offers a clear window. Use it well before Auckland turns up the dial later in the day.
PredictWind
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