A Rare Opportunity in the South Atlantic

The leaders of the Vendée Globe are currently riding a secondary depression north of Rio de Janeiro, propelling them on a fast and direct path toward the Cape of Good Hope. This weather window has set the stage for an unusually advantageous passage into the Southern Hemisphere.

“This small depression is perfectly timed,” Marchand explained. “It’s not particularly violent, but it has a great schuss effect. The leaders can take very direct routes, which is rare at this stage of the race. For them, it’s almost a perfect entry into the Southern Hemisphere.”

The Battle for Position

While the weather favours the leaders, not everyone will benefit equally. According to Marchand, only the first 10 or 12 boats are likely to latch onto the depression’s push, and even fewer will sustain it all the way to the Cape of Good Hope.

“Charlie Dalin (MACIF Santé Prévoyance) and Thomas Ruyant (VULNERABLE) look set to capitalise the most,” Marchand said. “They could very well be the only ones to ride the depression all the way. Everything will be decided by just a few miles.”

Fleet Dynamics: Splitting the Pack

The South Atlantic is already dividing the fleet, and Marchand anticipates a further split as some boats inevitably fall off the pace. However, he predicts those lagging behind will soon encounter favourable conditions themselves.

“For those who miss out on the depression, another big one is coming,” he explained. “While it won’t catch them up to the leaders, they’ll still make fast progress with relatively direct routes to South Africa. The elastic will stretch, but no one will be left completely out in the cold.”

Speed Records On The Horizon

Recent days have already seen the solo monohull 24-hour speed record fall twice, first to Nicolas Lunven (Holcim-PRB) and then to Yoann Richomme (PAPREC ARKEA). Marchand believes the records could tumble again as boats exploit the consistent conditions.

“With this depression, we could see multiple records set,” Marchand said. “It all depends on positioning. Closer to the depression’s centre, conditions will be rougher, while further north, they’ll be smoother and faster. Hull designs will also play a role—some boats, like Thomas Ruyant’s or Yoann Richomme’s, are more suited to these conditions than others.”

The Big Picture: Gaps And Risks

Looking ahead, Marchand foresees significant gaps forming in the fleet by the time they reach the Cape of Good Hope.

“In eight days, there could be a 2,000-mile gap between the foilers at the front and the main pack of daggerboard boats,” he said. “But nothing is ever final in a round-the-world race. The elastic stretches, but it always has the potential to snap back, as we’ve seen before.”

Marchand also stressed the risks inherent in the Southern Ocean. “Right now, the fleet is almost entirely intact, which is unprecedented two weeks into a Vendée Globe,” he said. “But once they enter the Big South, challenges will escalate. If issues arise, the remote location makes repairs far more difficult and time-consuming.”

He recalled Loïck Peyron’s 2008 race as an example of the dangers, noting that Peyron took three weeks to reach Australia after dismasting 650 miles from the Kerguelen Islands. “Down there, even a small problem can quickly snowball into a major crisis.”

Familiar Faces In The Race

Marchand also reflected on his former teammates from The Ocean Race, including Paul Meilhat, Sam Davies, and Damien Seguin, who are competing in this Vendée Globe.

“It’s fantastic to see them racing,” he said. “They’re holding steady, and their boats seem to be in great condition. The conditions so far haven’t been overly challenging, but that will change soon. It’s in the Southern Ocean that the race truly tests both the sailors and their boats.”

As the Vendée Globe competitors edge closer to the Cape of Good Hope, the race is poised to deliver more excitement and, undoubtedly, more drama. For now, the focus is on the leaders as they navigate the tight margins that could define their fortunes.

Stay tuned to Boating New Zealand for updates on the race and expert insights from Anthony Marchand and other sailing luminaries.