Monday AM update: Lucky powers ahead as Tasman turns golden

There’s Lucky, and then there’s everyone else.

By early Monday morning, the Juan K–designed 27-metre maxi had opened a yawning gap on the rest of the fleet. At 8 am NZ time, Lucky sat 547 nautical miles from Auckland — almost halfway across — after logging a blistering 24-hour run of 513 miles. Her lead over Antipodes has grown from 95 to more than 320 miles in just a day.

For owner Bryon Ehrhart and his crew, including Kiwi legend Brad Butterworth, it’s been a remarkable turnaround. The boat only just reached Sydney in time for Saturday’s start after an engine issue forced a return to Opua mid-week. Now she’s streaking east at an average of 18 knots, sailing well ahead of the pace needed to threaten the race record.

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The fleet behind

While Lucky charges ahead, the real contest is playing out astern.

Geoff Hill’s Antipodes and Mick Martin’s Frantic have barely been out of sight of each other since clearing Sydney Heads. They’re still only ten miles apart this morning, each making steady gains and maintaining an honest duel mid-ocean.

Behind them, Ian Edwards’ Wings and Alan Hill’s Cooloola continue their steady progress in near-perfect sailing weather. The pair have spent most of the crossing within VHF range, though Wings has eased slightly ahead overnight, now about forty miles in front.

Every yacht in the fleet improved its 24-hour run overnight — the kind of progress that speaks to settled crews, clean gear, and the sort of steady nor’wester sailors dream of.

Weather and what’s ahead

Meteorologist Roger “Clouds” Badham expects those same north-westerlies to hold through Monday before a front pushes off the New South Wales coast late tonight. That system should cross the Tasman and reach the top of the North Island on Tuesday evening, bringing a shift to cooler south-west winds.

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If Lucky keeps her current pace, she should make Auckland before the change. For Antipodes, Frantic, and the smaller boats behind, the last stretch could turn into a beat into the Gulf.

The shape of the race

Two days in, the Sydney to Auckland Ocean Race already feels like two separate contests — Lucky in a race against time and her own potential record, and a close-fought battle among the rest.

Either way, the rhythm of the Tasman is now set: strong breeze, long miles, and a fleet making the most of perfect offshore sailing conditions.

Sydney to Auckland Ocean Race 2025 — Monday 13 October, 8 am NZDT