A 56-metre sailing superyacht, Bayesian, went down in the early hours of 19 August 2024 while anchored roughly 300 metres off Porticello, near Palermo, Sicily. Of the 22 people aboard, 15 made it out alive. Seven did not — among them British technology entrepreneur Mike Lynch, his 18-year-old daughter Hannah, Morgan Stanley International chairman Jonathan Bloomer and his wife Judy, lawyer Chris Morvillo and his wife Neda, and the yacht’s chef, Recaldo Thomas.
Built by Perini Navi and delivered in 2008, with naval architecture by Ron Holland Design, Bayesian carried a 75-metre mast — the tallest single-mast on any aluminium sailing vessel at the time. At anchor that night, her centreboard was raised and all sails were furled.
Winds began building around 3am and had reached 30 knots by 3:55am. At 4:06am, the yacht rolled hard to starboard and sank. The entire sequence took minutes.
Conflicting findings
The cause of the sinking remains contested, with two investigations pointing to markedly different conclusions.
The UK Marine Accident Investigation Branch (MAIB), in its interim report released in May 2025, found that wind acting on the yacht’s profile — particularly its tall rig — was the decisive factor. Analysis by the University of Southampton’s Wolfson Unit determined that beam-on gusts exceeding 63 knots would likely have pushed Bayesian past the point of recovery. The MAIB placed that threshold at a heel angle of 70.6 degrees and noted the yacht’s stability booklet contained no reference to the risks posed by high gusts with the centreboard raised — leaving both owner and crew without critical information.
A separate expert analysis commissioned by the public prosecutor’s office in Termini Imerese has reached a different conclusion. First reported in Sky News at the end of April, those findings characterise the weather that night as little more than a squall — a sharp, short-lived increase in wind speed — that a properly managed vessel and crew should have been able to handle. In that assessment, the sinking is attributed to crew misjudgement of conditions and the failure to activate certain safety systems.
On that basis, prosecutors are weighing potential charges against New Zealand captain James Cutfield and two crew members, Tim Eaton and Matthew Griffith, including negligent shipwreck and multiple counts of manslaughter.
Builder’s position
The Italian Sea Group, which owns Perini Navi, has consistently rejected any suggestion of a design deficiency. Chief executive Giovanni Costantino has publicly described the vessel as unsinkable and argued that open hatches or doors allowed flooding once the yacht listed. The company has launched legal proceedings against the captain, two crew members, and the vessel’s holding company, seeking €456 million in damages for reputational harm and lost sales.
The MAIB’s final report has not yet been released. Bayesian was raised from 50 metres of water in a salvage operation completed in 2025.
