Bay of Islands Sailing Week is moving again. After the weather wiped out the opening day, the fleet is finally racing this morning. The week ahead looks far kinder.
At 10:52am, wind on the start area is sitting around 20 knots, after briefly touching 24 knots earlier. Using the consensus across the main PredictWind models, the breeze should ease a touch through late morning, settling near 18 knots around midday. From there it builds again, lifting to about 22 knots by mid afternoon. Crews should plan for a proper working day, with trim changes and clean boat handling earning their keep.
Gusts are the swing factor. Model agreement points to gusts mainly in the mid to high 20s, with the chance of short, sharper bursts later in the afternoon. They are expected to be brief rather than sustained. The trend through the back half of the day does not point to a blowout, but it does reward crews who stay switched on.
Rain is the real story today. Wet weather gear should be out from start to finish. Most guidance shows two to three millimetres per hour through late morning and early afternoon, then a heavier pulse later in the day. That rain is likely to carry on into the evening and through the night. Visibility remains a watch point, but it is holding well enough for racing as things stand.
There is no meaningful lightning signal for today, and the risk remains low for Thursday.
Tomorrow is the carrot. Thursday is shaping as the cleanest sailing day of the week, with 14 to 16 knots as the base breeze and only brief lifts towards 20 knots in the gusts. Best of all, the rain largely clears during racing hours.
Friday stays in the same lane. Low to mid teens of consistent wind with modest gusts, and a chance of sun. After a messy start, Bay of Islands Sailing Week is now set up for a proper run.
