“There’s two lows coming through in this race that are substantial,” she says.
“They’re boat-breaking, they’re human-breaking, and they could end your race very, very quickly.”
At the time of this article being uploaded, the Predict Wind weather report for the next few days makes for a sobering watch.
Reading the lows
PredictWind puts the first system at the top of New Zealand as the fleet round into the Tasman. Thursday’s briefing put gusts at 35-40 knots. Sharon’s own morning Friday forecast puts that number higher: rain squalls with gusts potentially reaching 50 knots. How each competitor positions relative to the centre of each low, she says, will define their race.
“Monitoring to see what they’re doing [as the weather changes] is going to be critical. If the wind’s a little bit lower than forecast, you go, okay, maybe it won’t be as bad. But if it’s already higher, that is going to be significant.”
She is considering going further north, adding distance to stay away from the worst of it. “Damaging yourself or the boat within the first 200 miles doesn’t make sense. We’ve got 1,200 miles to sail.”
Three weeks of easterlies had been building sea state in the Tasman before the wind dropped in the past few days. Had that sea state carried into the low, Sharon puts the wave height at six to seven metres. “That’s potentially don’t leave the dock.”
On whether she would leave at all in those conditions: “I always have a saying as a mother. If what I’m about to do has a potential to create motherless children, and if that’s even entering my head, we need to have a serious look at the responsibility of what we’re about to do. We’re not there. We’re not in that situation.”
On a possible delay
Thursday’s PredictWind weather briefing modelled departure options across Saturday, Sunday and Tuesday. Sunday and Monday were modelled worse than Saturday. Tuesday’s window was meaningfully lighter. Sharon says competitors would be watching the latest data closely on Friday afternoon.
“If there’s people starting to get cold feet, or looking at it and going, this is not a race anymore, this is survival, then you might see some action this afternoon.”
“If there is 60 knots tomorrow, I won’t be leaving the dock. The boat’s too valuable. I’m a mum. I’ve got responsibilities. It’s a yacht race.”
One mile at a time
Sharon was the first woman in the world to win a ORYX Quest round-the-world yacht race, holds five world speed records, competed at two Olympic Games, and has 124,000 offshore racing miles behind her. The Trans-Tasman result is not what she’s focused on right now.
“The goal is to get there safely and competitively. The result will be what it will be.”
Vixen Racing carries a high handicap rating, and Sharon knows the boat will need to sail well to feature. But Saturday at noon, she’ll be on the start line.
Follow Sharon and the rest of the fleet live at boatingnz.co.nz/sttc.
