Twenty-four hours into the inaugural Course des Caps – Boulogne-sur-Mer – Banque Populaire du Nord, the eleven IMOCA 60s are still tightly packed as they thread their way along the south coast of England. The first major tactical crossroads looms ahead, and while the weather remains more generous than forecast, uncertainty is growing.
What began under a blanket of fog and breathless air has evolved into a tightly contested and strategic game of inches. Light but steady breezes and a flat sea state have allowed the fleet to settle into a rhythm—albeit one driven as much by patience and decision-making as boat speed. With only minor gaps separating the leaders from the chasing pack, the race is beginning to take shape more like a Figaro leg than a traditional offshore drag race. For once, the foilers haven’t simply sailed away.
Early gains in the light air
Overnight, a welcome surprise came in the form of a light northeasterly flow, filling in more reliably than expected and reaching around 10 knots. That gave the fleet a needed boost and a chance to sail at double-digit speeds.
“It’s stronger than forecast, and we’re making good progress toward the English coast,” said Élodie Bonafous (Association Petits Princes – Quéguiner). “The next call will be critical: do we pass north or south of the Casquets DST?”
This traffic separation scheme, off the Channel Islands, marks the first major decision point. Both options have risks—changing currents, fickle wind pressure, and longer-term tactical consequences—and the weather files offer no clear answers. While models diverge, the actual conditions remain more stable than expected, keeping the fleet together.
Benjamin Dutreux (4CAD – La Mie Câline) noted the tightness of the pack: “It’s been a constant sequence of small decisions. We tried staying close to shore to ride a current reversal, but it was hit and miss. Once the wind shifted in the night, everything compressed again.”
Fleet still locked in a chess match
By mid-morning Monday, the leaders were still within shouting distance of one another. MACIF Santé Prévoyance, VULNERABLE, and 4CAD – La Mie Câline were all running near the front, with just over five miles separating the top eight boats. Behind them, even the daggerboard-equipped boats—like FDJ United – Wewise, skippered by Fabrice Amedeo—are hanging in, benefitting from conditions that favour precise navigation over brute force.
“This feels more like a Figaro race than an IMOCA leg,” Amedeo said. “We’re all still in contact. The foilers haven’t taken off. It’s exciting.”
That sentiment is echoed by many skippers, particularly as conditions remain manageable and enjoyable. “We’re moving along at 14-15 knots, the foil is whistling, and morale is high,” said Ambrogio Beccaria aboard VULNERABLE, winner of the first sprint leg—the Trophée des Hauts-de-France—between the start line and the DST South Longitude. “We’re having a blast, but we’re also trying not to repeat yesterday’s mistakes.”
Barometric trouble ahead
Despite the current pace, things are about to change. A barometric ridge forming between two high-pressure systems is forecast to stall the wind field later today, just as the fleet approaches Land’s End and the Scilly Isles. This will create another potential trap—an extended zone of light winds where boats could be caught for hours, or even longer.
“Transition zones like this are where real gaps form,” warned Loïs Berrehar (MACIF Santé Prévoyance). “If you get stuck, the leaders can slip away. The race could pivot dramatically in the next 12 to 24 hours.”
There’s optimism, too. Routing models—unreliable as they’ve been—now suggest that if the fleet manages to escape this calm patch efficiently, a building northerly or northwesterly breeze could propel the leaders along the west coast of the UK and accelerate the second half of the race. Finish predictions have already been revised: while earlier forecasts pointed to an eight-day race, the frontrunners could now reach Boulogne-sur-Mer as early as Saturday night or Sunday morning.
Every move counts
For now, the race remains finely balanced. Tactical errors, even minor ones, are punished by the current and light pressure. Positioning for the next transition zone is already underway, with skippers weighing their approach to Land’s End and calculating how to best handle potential compression near the Scillies.
“We’re staying focused on finding clean air and positioning well,” said Justine Mettraux (TeamWork – Team Snef). “It’s not about heroics yet—it’s about control and consistency. A single wrong decision could cost you the race.”
A democratic race so far
Notably, this phase of the Course des Caps has levelled the playing field. Boats without foils, normally outpaced in open-water ocean racing, are still in the hunt. The relatively even conditions and coastal compression have favoured skippers with sharp inshore racing instincts—making this leg an unusual but welcome twist in the IMOCA calendar.
As the fleet approaches the next tactical gate, the picture remains delightfully unclear. That’s fitting for a new race that aims to blend the heritage of round-Britain sailing with the sharp edge of modern ocean racing.
This is not a race that will be won on pure horsepower. It’s a marathon of choices. And the fleet is still running shoulder to shoulder.