Calm waters and light winds will greet the Vendée Arctique fleet at the start line on Sunday afternoon, but the respite will be brief. The forecast warns of a sharp deterioration through the first night, with westerly winds building to 25 knots by Monday morning as the boats approach the Fastnet and the waters west of Ireland. Those conditions will test the skippers’ mettle before they push further north into the Arctic’s demanding regime.
The race meteorologist, Christian Dumard, paints a picture of deceptive ease followed by hard work. At the Sunday midday start, wind speeds could sit below 5 knots, though the swell will run over two metres, making for a lumpy rather than breezy departure. Afternoon breezes may offer brief relief, but they’ll fade into the night, leaving crews in light airs through the early hours.
The real action begins Monday morning. A westerly flow will push down from the north-west, accelerating as it comes, and by the time the boats are working the waters west of Ireland, the wind will be filling in hard at around 25 knots. For the foiling IMOCAs, those are muscle conditions, demanding precision and aggression in equal measure. Crews will need to be sharp; there’s no margin for sluggish decision-making or hesitation. The Fastnet Rock beckons for Monday night or Tuesday dawn, and the skippers who nail the transition from light to heavy air will gain precious ground on those who waste time adjusting their tactics.
The early hours of the race, then, will separate the smooth operators from the scrambling amateurs. Sunday’s benign start will lull no one who’s been paying attention. The wind waits just beyond the horizon, and the crews who refuse to ease up during the calm will find themselves best positioned when the pressure comes on.
