A powerful ridge of high pressure is dominating New Zealand’s weather this week (Monday 21 to Friday 25 July), ushering in a classic winter pattern of settled skies, freezing starts, and light winds across much of the country. For many, it’s a welcome reprieve after the wet weeks just gone. But if you’re heading for the water, there are definitely better and worse places to be.
Best picks for boaties
If you’re looking to launch, the upper South Island and most of the central North Island are shaping up beautifully for cruising, fishing, or boat maintenance. Expect cold mornings but bright, crisp days with light breezes and manageable sea states. The Raglan, Abel, and Stephens coastal zones show relatively benign conditions through Thursday, with gentle to moderate offshore swells and variable winds—just the ticket for small craft operations and winter exploring.
The Kaipara and Colville areas also present opportunities for midweek trips, particularly Wednesday and Thursday, when easterlies ease and offshore swells stabilise around 1–2 metres. And if you’re based around the Hauraki Gulf, it’s a decent week to get out and take advantage of glassy mornings—just watch out for patchy frost and possible fog in inland launch zones.
Places to show caution or avoid (for now)
The forecast isn’t perfect across the board. A few key areas warrant caution:
- Eastern North Island (Tairāwhiti Gisborne and Hawke’s Bay) will remain under cloud and occasional showers until Wednesday night due to a lingering southeasterly flow. Coastal winds will be gusty at times and visibility reduced—less than ideal for any offshore plans.
- Fiordland and the deep south begin the week calm, but conditions deteriorate fast from Thursday as a front builds from the Tasman. Milford, Puysegur, and Foveaux zones see strengthening northerlies by Thursday, with seas becoming rough to very rough by Friday and swells building rapidly.
- Chatham Islands face stiff southerlies and rough seas most of the week, with 25-knot winds and a southeast swell up to 3 metres through Wednesday. Even by Friday, things only marginally ease.
- Fog risk remains high across inland valleys of Otago, Southland, and the Mackenzie Basin. Twizel is dropping to -5°C midweek, and Christchurch has already recorded its coldest July temperature so far at -3.8°C. Inland Dunedin and Taumarunui aren’t far behind. For trailer boaters launching near these areas, watch for slick ramps and low visibility.
Midweek highlights and Friday front
Wednesday looks like the week’s jewel—settled right across the country with light winds, high pressure overhead, and reduced shower activity out east. It’s the best day for most regions, from the Bay of Plenty to Nelson, Kaikōura, and inland lakes.
But come Friday, the Tasman front begins to land. Fiordland, the West Coast, and southern offshore areas will see increasing cloud, strengthening winds (northerlies gusting 35 knots in Puysegur), and a rise in swell. Conditions will become marginal by afternoon, particularly for longer offshore passages or bar crossings.
Outlook Summary
- Top spots: Abel, Raglan, Colville, upper West Coast, central North Island lakes
- Areas to dodge: Eastern North Island (until Thursday), Fiordland and Puysegur (from Thursday), Chatham Islands (all week)
- Best day on the water: Wednesday 23 July
- Watch out for: Freezing decks, slippery ramps, inland fog, and early bar crossings on Friday
Check marine forecasts before you launch: www.metservice.com/marine
